新时代我国现代化产业体系构建的工业化逻辑及其实现路径

现代化产业体系是现代化经济体系的重要组成部分,是指产业发展的新型化、产业结构的高级化、产业发展的集聚化和产业竞争力的高端化。从新时代经济发展的现实状态来看,我国现代化产业体系的构建必须坚持工业化的逻辑。坚持工业化逻辑就是要防止过度去工业化,从新兴产业的新动能培育与传统产业的新旧动能转换两条路径入手,以新型工业化、再工业化、继续工业化及工业现代化为基本逻辑,在坚持把实体经济做优做强的基础上,通过创新为我国工业化发展提供核心动力,进而构建我国新时代的现代化产业体系。现代化产业体系构建的工业化逻辑的实现需要发挥现代信息技术对产业发展的渗透作用,以信息化带动传统产业的现代化,加快战略性新兴产业的发展;推进供给侧结构性改革,积极培育现代化产业体系的新动能;推动消费结构升级,积极培育未来新产业的发展;完善支持体系,创造现代化产业体系构建的环境。     

地方创新性立法的限度及其规范化

地方创新性立法是推进地方治理法治化的重要手段,鼓励地方立法创新是完善我国立法体制的应有之义。为实现地方创新性立法的规范化,应明确地方性事务的判断标准,引入重大事项请示报告制度,加强立法决策量化论证。     

Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

中国特色社会主义法治理论:思想根基、主要特性与学科定位

中国特色社会主义法治理论作为中国特色社会主义法治体系的理论化表达,作为一种新型的理论形态,可以从三个方面来认知。首先,从思想源流来看,马克思主义法律思想是中国特色社会主义法治理论的思想根基。其次,从理论个性来看,中国特色社会主义法治理论的主要特性包括中国性、政治性与学术性。从学科定位来看,中国特色社会主义法治理论既是法学学科体系中的一个组成部分,同时也代表了法治理论谱系中的一种最新形态。把握中国特色社会主义法治理论的思想根基、主要特性与学科定位,既是创新和发展中国特色社会主义法治理论的前提,也是坚持和完善中国特色社会主义法治体系的前提。     

Applying Moral Foundations Theory to the Explanation of Capital Jurors’ Sentencing Decisions

Abstract

This study applies moral foundations theory to capital juror decision making. We hypothesized that binding moral foundations would predict death qualification and punitive sentencing decisions, whereas individualizing moral foundations would be associated with juror disqualification and a leniency effect. Additionally, we considered whether moral foundations can explain differences in death penalty application between conservatives and liberals. Respondents from two independent samples participated in a mock-juror task in which the circumstances of a hypothetical defendant’s case varied. Results revealed moral foundations were strong predictors of death qualification. The binding and individualizing foundations were related to sentencing decisions in the expected ways. Supporting our contention that moral foundations operate differently across different types of cases, heterogeneity in the effects of moral foundations was observed. Finally, we found support for the hypothesis that the relationship between sentencing decisions and conservatism would be attenuated by moral foundations.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

未来十年增长潜力预测与“十四五”时期战略目标、战略重点

“十四五”时期是我国从全面建成小康社会向基本实现社会主义现代化迈进的关键过渡期。基于数量和质量双重维度，采用趋势外推法预测未来经济增长潜力，未来十年中国的潜在经济增长率呈现明显下降态势，而经济增长质量潜力则出现显著上升趋势。“十四五”时期建设社会主义现代化国家的战略目标包括以推动高质量发展为基本导向、以提升国家核心竞争力为集中体现、以增进人民福祉为最终目的、以推进国家治理现代化为重要保障。在此基础上，“十四五”时期的战略重点是更加有力的创新驱动、更加优化的经济结构、更加完善的基础设施体系和更加现代化的发展道路。     

认罪认罚从宽制度的体系性反思与建构

虽然认罪认罚从宽制度是在我国《刑事诉讼法》中得以正式确立的,但《刑事诉讼法》中涉及此制度的具体规定又都是操作层面的。据此,认罪认罚从宽制度的合理性并不能得以阐释。而依据我国《刑法》,对认罪认罚从宽制度的合理性则可以从形式逻辑、实质逻辑以及价值理念三个维度予以充分证成。由此可知,认罪认罚从宽制度本质上系《刑法》中的一种刑罚裁量制度,认罪认罚本质上是法定的从宽量刑情节。在定罪层面,犯罪嫌疑人、被告人只需自愿承认不法事实系其所为,即构成"认罪",而无需准确评价自身行为的法律性质并准确识别具体罪名;在量刑层面,"认罚"考察的重点是犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的悔罪态度和悔罪表现。应当通过刑法立法的方式将认罪认罚从宽制度与自首制度、坦白制度部分重叠地整合在一起,以避免"概念混同""重复评价"的错误倾向。     

法学研究目标受众选择的大数据分析

文章为谁而写,是法学研究需要解决的基础性命题。从近二十年约2.5万篇法学核心期刊文章的大数据机器学习分类结果看,我国的法学研究成果呈多重目标格局,其中近三成服务于执法机关(包括行政机关和司法机关),同时也有为立法者、执政者建言献策的成果。经检验,目标受众类型的选择与论文的传播能力以及获得基金支持的机会之间有显著相关性。这一决定成果影响力大小的机制迟早会被个体习得并不断强化,成为研究者选择目标受众类型的重要因素。该机制良性运转的关键是处理好学者和实践受众的关系,保持学术研究必要的自主性,警惕学术研究在追逐发表、经济支持时被有关主体“认知俘获”。     

统筹各类编制资源的改革方向和政策建议

统筹使用各类编制资源,是新时代机构和行政体制改革的重要方向。本文首先分析了编制分类的内容构成、不同类型编制的管理权限、编制总量控制的政策约束,进而对编制分类管理的效应及带来的问题进行了综合性分析。接着,追踪梳理当前地方统筹使用各类编制的最新探索和创新。在此基础上,从跨类别、跨部门、跨地域、跨层级四个维度,提出编制统筹管理改革的思路和政策建议。